Impact of Trump's import tariffs on the technology industry

The United States' announcement to impose a 10 percent import tariff—rising to 25 percent—on goods from the Netherlands and other countries starting in February is putting direct and indirect pressure on the Dutch technology industry. Although the measure is prompted by geopolitical tensions surrounding a military mission in Greenland, the economic consequences are being felt most acutely in the broader European industry, of which Dutch technology companies are an integral part. As a result, FHI's technology sectors are seeing their position increasingly under pressure.

The Central Planning Bureau (CPB) outlines in its report Economic effects of import duties[1] A clear picture of the risks for the Netherlands. According to the CPB (Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis), GDP growth will decline by approximately one percentage point in the short term, primarily due to declining trade, lower investments, and increasing uncertainty. Although only 5.9 percent of Dutch goods exports covered by Trump's measure go directly to the US, the technology industry is strongly intertwined with export-oriented supply chains in Germany and Scandinavia, regions that are particularly hard hit by the higher tariffs. These cascading effects mean that Dutch suppliers could indirectly suffer significant losses.

For FHI members supplying high-quality components, measurement and control systems, industrial electronics, or OEM modules to larger European machine manufacturers, a 25 percent tariff increase at the US border could lead to order postponements, price pressure, and shifts in international supply chains. The German automotive industry and the extensive mechanical engineering sector, both major buyers of Dutch technology, are already warning that a tariff of this magnitude would make European products practically unsellable in the US market.[2] This creates uncertainty in investment decisions and R&D plans.

The CPB analysis also shows that the greatest damage stems not from the tariff itself, but from the political and economic uncertainty surrounding further escalation. Uncertainty inhibits investments, leads to more cautious procurement strategies, and puts pressure on international innovative collaborations. The technology industry is particularly vulnerable to these kinds of shocks because it operates with long development cycles, high capital costs, and international value chains. Disruption of such chains can lead to delays in product launches and innovation.

Currency movements also play a role. Due to rising tensions and political pressure on the US central bank, the dollar is weakening. For Dutch technology companies, this means importing becomes cheaper, but exporting to the US becomes relatively more expensive. This amplifies the effect of the tariffs and reduces the competitiveness of high-tech products. Sectors dependent on US components benefit from lower dollar prices in the short term, but companies that export to the US themselves face margin pressure.

From an FHI perspective, one conclusion is central: trade policy uncertainty currently poses the greatest risk to the continuity and innovative strength of the Dutch technology industry. The sector therefore demands predictability, diplomatic commitment, and European coordination to prevent an escalation of trade relations with the US. Technology companies can do many things, but they cannot operate in a climate where geopolitical shocks dominate investment decisions.

Trump's import tariffs are therefore not merely a tool in a conflict over Greenland, but a threat to international technological value chains, where the Netherlands excels. As an open, export-driven high-tech economy, the Netherlands—and especially its FHI supporters—has an interest in stable trade relations and a level playing field. The coming months will therefore be crucial to prevent temporary political tensions from escalating into long-term economic damage for one of our country's most innovative sectors.

FHI will keep you informed. Do you have any questions about the announced import duties? Please contact us. FHI is closely monitoring the situation and will continue to share our views with the government through our MKB-NL membership..

[1] Economic effects of import duties

[2] Trump corners German auto industry with insane demand: 'No deal means paying billions' | Autobahn