Economic Barometer Q1 2026: cautious optimism in a turbulent market

The FHI Economic Barometer offers quarterly insight into economic expectations within the technology sectors. Based on indicators such as order book, revenue, investments, and personnel, the barometer paints a current picture of market dynamics and the direction in which companies are developing.

The results for the first quarter of 2026 show a mixed but predominantly stable picture. Despite geopolitical uncertainty and economic pressure, companies continue to invest and have a moderately positive outlook on the short term.

Order position: differences by sector

The development of the order book reveals clear contrasts between sectors. In industrial automation and electronics, a majority of companies report an improvement compared to a year earlier. In laboratory technology, the picture is mixed, with a significant proportion of companies reporting a deterioration. In building automation, the order book remains stable.

Expectations for the current quarter are predominantly positive. Particularly in industrial electronics, a large majority expects further improvement, while other sectors mainly anticipate stability or slight growth.

Revenue development: growth holds steady

Revenue development largely follows the same pattern. Industrial electronics stands out, with a clear majority of companies achieving revenue growth. Industrial automation also shows a positive picture, albeit more moderate.

The outlook for the coming quarter remains in line with this development. Companies expect growth or stabilization, with negative expectations remaining limited.

Prices continue to rise

It is striking that prices have risen again in all sectors. In some branches, such as building automation, everyone is even reporting price increases. This underscores the continued pressure on costs and margins within the sector.

Opportunities: energy transition and AI dominant

Companies see clear growth opportunities, with the energy transition as the main driver. This is viewed as a central development across all sectors. In addition, digitalization plays an increasingly important role. Improving business processes with AI and the growth of service and maintenance activities are widely cited as promising directions.

Threats: geopolitics and uncertainty prevail

At the same time, the external environment remains unstable. Geopolitical tensions are cited as the primary risk in multiple sectors. In laboratory technology, economic uncertainty also plays a dominant role, while in other sectors, labor shortages and raw material issues weigh heavily.

It is striking that companies are actively preparing for these risks, particularly through cybersecurity measures and strategies to absorb economic fluctuations.

Conclusion

The Economic Barometer Q1 2026 reveals a sector holding its own in a complex playing field. Growth is not a given, but remains within reach. Companies are navigating between opportunities in energy transition and digitalization on the one hand, and geopolitical and economic uncertainty on the other.

The result is a market that is not entirely positive, but is resilient and focused on progress.

A A complete overview of the Economic Barometer can be found here.

We continue to closely monitor developments and will continue to provide our members with the most up-to-date and relevant information.